Monday, December 12, 2016


TRUMP IS PLAYING HIS TAIWAN CARD WHY HE IS STILL LESS OF A THREAT TO CHINA THAN HILLARY OR OBAMA America’s foreign policies toward China can be easily characterized as tactics to contain China’s growth and gain advantages for the benefits of the U.S. This selfish motive is very understandable in light of America’s concern of China’s economic challenge. All the China bashings from U.S. leaders simply reflect U.S. fear of China economic dominance which seems unstoppable. The only difference between the U.S. leaders bashing approaches are based either ideological or practical. Both Obama and Hillary are political intellectuals. They attack China on ideological levels such as freedom, democracy and human rights to plant seeds of divisiveness in China. Whereas Trump as seasoned business man, attacks China on trade practices and lately by playing the Taiwan card, in so doing hoping to gain advantages in trade negotiations. On surface Trump appears to be more aggressively against China than Hillary and Obama but on more analysis Trumps tactics will prove to be ineffective. Of late there is a lot of buss in U.S. media about how brilliant Trump is in playing the Taiwan card, going as far as denying the long held U.S. one China policy. Since one China is a core interest of China, the U.S. main stream is supporting Trump for hitting China where it hurts. On surface it appears to be smart but in reality it is Taiwan that will be hurt and not China. This is because Taiwan is totally dependent on China economically. U.S. has very little to offer Taiwan economically by being friendly but China can hurt Taiwan economics badly by being unfriendly. Most of all by driving a wedge between China and Taiwan, Trump also unknowingly unites all Chinese worldwide behind the Chinese government to forge ahead Xi’s call for China dream and China rejuvenation. This will give more momentum to Xi’s “One Belt One Road” initiative to connect the world through the new Silk Road (please refer to my essay “China will become the Middle Kingdom again). What is more Trump’s use of Taiwan card will give China more reasons to reclaim more South China Sea islands, something that the U.S. Pentagon does not like. Trump will fail in deterring China, first he does not understand what drives China, second political negotiation and business negotiation may not mix, each requires its own response. At the end Trump cannot out negotiates China on the economic front because China’s economic momentum is unstoppable no matter how smart Trump is. On the other hand, both Obama and Hillary tactics to attack China are much more dangerous. Since China needs its citizen’s support to move ahead on Xi’s strategies of China dream and China rejuvenation to reach the two important centennial goals of moderately prosperity and modern socialist state. The successful reaching of the two important centennial goals will largely depend on the unity of the nation. Hillary’s tactics are designed to plant seeds of ideological divisiveness in China. By excluding China, Obama’s TPP trade agreement is designed to isolate China from her own backyard economically. This will potentially restore America’s economic leadership in Asia and put a dent in China’s economic momentum. Francis C W Fung, Ph.D. Director General World Harmony Organization, S.F., CA

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